The number of transactions we do this fall and winter will be approximately the same as we did last fall and winter. The pie will not get bigger. If you want more pie than you had last year, you must outperform those competing for a slice. Most agents that were not committed to the business are already gone. That leaves only good agents and great agents. I’m not sure the good are going to survive. Push yourself to be great.

2. Realize the headlines are going to get brutal.

Starting in October, NAR’s Pending Sales Report will compare homes going into contract this fall vs. last fall. Don’t forget the run-up of sales that occurred last fall as the original Homebuyers’ Tax Credit was set to expire on November 30^th. This year’s sales will look anemic in comparison. The headlines will be screaming that the market is crashing. Let your clients know the tax credit pulled demand forward. That is why sales last winter (after November 30^th) were so dismal. The same number of houses will sell this fall and winter. They will just be spread more evenly over all six months. Show them this in the forms of graphs in order to help them understand and therefore not panic.

3. The use of great visuals will make the difference.

The one common denominator with agents that are struggling is that they are trying to ‘talk’ their way through these difficult times. Trying to communicate the volatility of today’s real estate market by talking instead of using strong visuals is like hammering in a nail with your head. You will never get the job done and you’ll wind up with nothing but a headache.

4. The Luxury Market is not coming back – IT IS BACK!

The only segments of the housing market that are showing sales growth are the price points over $1 million. According to NAR, that market is up 6.1 % in the second quarter of this year vs. the second quarter of last year. Also, a recent survey showed that over 30% of affluent buyers are planning to either build/buy a new primary residence or a second/vacation home in the next twelve months. If you have worked this market in the past but left when sales dried up, it may be time to at least dip your toe back in that pool.

5. Be ‘BOLD’ in building your business.

This will be ‘the winter of discontent’ for many agents. People are already predicting a wave of agents (and maybe some companies) will not make it to the spring. This should be of no concern to an agent who has a goal they truly want to attain. Be bold in your goal setting. Most fortunes are made when a person’s (or company’s) competitors are retrenching out of fear. Step forward while others are retreating! Your courage will be rewarded!

As an industry, we prepare a manual for our listing appointments but try to ‘wing’ the others. Here are the appointments and some thoughts on how we should prepare our manuals:

1. Listing Presentation Manual – We must have all the usual information available (company profile, personal resume, etc). However, we must now also have up-to-the-minute articles, studies, reports and graphs to show what is happening in this rapidly evolving market. What are the experts predicting? What impact will distressed properties have on house values in the local area? Where are prices headed? If we don’t come across as a professional who truly has a grasp of the market, why should they hire us?
2. Buyer Presentation Manual – After the usual introduction information, we must have available information on both the financial and non-financial benefits of homeownership. Do we have a bar graph showing that residential real estate has been a better investment than the stock market over the last ten years? Do we have a line graph showing that prices have fallen to pre-bubble prices? Do we have a table showing that not only have prices fallen but so have interest rates? They can own the same home for hundreds of dollars less a month than they could in 2003. Do we have the visuals necessary to explain that? If not, why not?
3. Price Correction Manual – This is perhaps the most important appointment going into the next six months. Do we have the CME Group’s prediction of where prices are headed over the next six months? How about the graph from Bank of America’s September report showing where they see home prices headed? Moody’s graph showing each of the two scenarios they believe could happen? This is the type of evidence we need to prove to the seller that it is best to lower the price. Professionals come prepared with this type of information.
4. Presentation of Offer Manual – We have a seller that wants to sell and a buyer that wants to buy. How do we prepare for the presentation of that offer? We know the probable objections that both sides will have. Do we have a manual that has the necessary information to help either the buyer or seller see the reasons they should agree to the terms? Or are we just ‘winging it’?

In the Success Strategies section, I said that I wasn’t sure if being a good agent was good enough anymore. I challenged you to strive for greatness. The greats in any profession come prepared.

The number of transactions we do this fall and winter will be approximately the same as we did last fall and winter. The pie will not get bigger. If you want more pie than you had last year, you must outperform those competing for a slice. Most agents that were not committed to the business are already gone. That leaves only good agents and great agents. I’m not sure the good are going to survive. Push yourself to be great.

2. Realize the headlines are going to get brutal.

Starting in October, NAR’s Pending Sales Report will compare homes going into contract this fall vs. last fall. Don’t forget the run-up of sales that occurred last fall as the original Homebuyers’ Tax Credit was set to expire on November 30^th. This year’s sales will look anemic in comparison. The headlines will be screaming that the market is crashing. Let your clients know the tax credit pulled demand forward. That is why sales last winter (after November 30^th) were so dismal. The same number of houses will sell this fall and winter. They will just be spread more evenly over all six months. Show them this in the forms of graphs in order to help them understand and therefore not panic.

3. The use of great visuals will make the difference.

The one common denominator with agents that are struggling is that they are trying to ‘talk’ their way through these difficult times. Trying to communicate the volatility of today’s real estate market by talking instead of using strong visuals is like hammering in a nail with your head. You will never get the job done and you’ll wind up with nothing but a headache.

4. The Luxury Market is not coming back – IT IS BACK!

The only segments of the housing market that are showing sales growth are the price points over $1 million. According to NAR, that market is up 6.1 % in the second quarter of this year vs. the second quarter of last year. Also, a recent survey showed that over 30% of affluent buyers are planning to either build/buy a new primary residence or a second/vacation home in the next twelve months. If you have worked this market in the past but left when sales dried up, it may be time to at least dip your toe back in that pool.

5. Be ‘BOLD’ in building your business.

This will be ‘the winter of discontent’ for many agents. People are already predicting a wave of agents (and maybe some companies) will not make it to the spring. This should be of no concern to an agent who has a goal they truly want to attain. Be bold in your goal setting. Most fortunes are made when a person’s (or company’s) competitors are retrenching out of fear. Step forward while others are retreating! Your courage will be rewarded!

However, if you want to be successful with anyone in the generations that followed my father’s, you must realize that you need to ‘show’ them what you are trying to communicate. I didn’t come home from school and sit in front of a radio. You probably didn’t either. We were the TV generation. We learned visually. My sons don’t call someone for verbal instructions when they need help. They go to YouTube for an instructional video.

If we want to simply and effectively explain today’s market to a client, YOU MUST USE VISUALS.

However, if you want to be successful with anyone in the generations that followed my father’s, you must realize that you need to ‘show’ them what you are trying to communicate. I didn’t come home from school and sit in front of a radio. You probably didn’t either. We were the TV generation. We learned visually. My sons don’t call someone for verbal instructions when they need help. They go to YouTube for an instructional video.

If we want to simply and effectively explain today’s market to a client, YOU MUST USE VISUALS.

As an industry, we prepare a manual for our listing appointments but try to ‘wing’ the others. Here are the appointments and some thoughts on how we should prepare our manuals:

1. Listing Presentation Manual – We must have all the usual information available (company profile, personal resume, etc). However, we must now also have up-to-the-minute articles, studies, reports and graphs to show what is happening in this rapidly evolving market. What are the experts predicting? What impact will distressed properties have on house values in the local area? Where are prices headed? If we don’t come across as a professional who truly has a grasp of the market, why should they hire us?
2. Buyer Presentation Manual – After the usual introduction information, we must have available information on both the financial and non-financial benefits of homeownership. Do we have a bar graph showing that residential real estate has been a better investment than the stock market over the last ten years? Do we have a line graph showing that prices have fallen to pre-bubble prices? Do we have a table showing that not only have prices fallen but so have interest rates? They can own the same home for hundreds of dollars less a month than they could in 2003. Do we have the visuals necessary to explain that? If not, why not?
3. Price Correction Manual – This is perhaps the most important appointment going into the next six months. Do we have the CME Group’s prediction of where prices are headed over the next six months? How about the graph from Bank of America’s September report showing where they see home prices headed? Moody’s graph showing each of the two scenarios they believe could happen? This is the type of evidence we need to prove to the seller that it is best to lower the price. Professionals come prepared with this type of information.
4. Presentation of Offer Manual – We have a seller that wants to sell and a buyer that wants to buy. How do we prepare for the presentation of that offer? We know the probable objections that both sides will have. Do we have a manual that has the necessary information to help either the buyer or seller see the reasons they should agree to the terms? Or are we just ‘winging it’?

In the Success Strategies section, I said that I wasn’t sure if being a good agent was good enough anymore. I challenged you to strive for greatness. The greats in any profession come prepared.

As an industry, we prepare a manual for our listing appointments but try to ‘wing’ the others. Here are the appointments and some thoughts on how we should prepare our manuals:

1. Listing Presentation Manual – We must have all the usual information available (company profile, personal resume, etc). However, we must now also have up-to-the-minute articles, studies, reports and graphs to show what is happening in this rapidly evolving market. What are the experts predicting? What impact will distressed properties have on house values in the local area? Where are prices headed? If we don’t come across as a professional who truly has a grasp of the market, why should they hire us?
2. Buyer Presentation Manual – After the usual introduction information, we must have available information on both the financial and non-financial benefits of homeownership. Do we have a bar graph showing that residential real estate has been a better investment than the stock market over the last ten years? Do we have a line graph showing that prices have fallen to pre-bubble prices? Do we have a table showing that not only have prices fallen but so have interest rates? They can own the same home for hundreds of dollars less a month than they could in 2003. Do we have the visuals necessary to explain that? If not, why not?
3. Price Correction Manual – This is perhaps the most important appointment going into the next six months. Do we have the CME Group’s prediction of where prices are headed over the next six months? How about the graph from Bank of America’s September report showing where they see home prices headed? Moody’s graph showing each of the two scenarios they believe could happen? This is the type of evidence we need to prove to the seller that it is best to lower the price. Professionals come prepared with this type of information.
4. Presentation of Offer Manual – We have a seller that wants to sell and a buyer that wants to buy. How do we prepare for the presentation of that offer? We know the probable objections that both sides will have. Do we have a manual that has the necessary information to help either the buyer or seller see the reasons they should agree to the terms? Or are we just ‘winging it’?

In the Success Strategies section, I said that I wasn’t sure if being a good agent was good enough anymore. I challenged you to strive for greatness. The greats in any profession come prepared.

The number of transactions we do this fall and winter will be approximately the same as we did last fall and winter. The pie will not get bigger. If you want more pie than you had last year, you must outperform those competing for a slice. Most agents that were not committed to the business are already gone. That leaves only good agents and great agents. I’m not sure the good are going to survive. Push yourself to be great.

2. Realize the headlines are going to get brutal.

Starting in October, NAR’s Pending Sales Report will compare homes going into contract this fall vs. last fall. Don’t forget the run-up of sales that occurred last fall as the original Homebuyers’ Tax Credit was set to expire on November 30^th. This year’s sales will look anemic in comparison. The headlines will be screaming that the market is crashing. Let your clients know the tax credit pulled demand forward. That is why sales last winter (after November 30^th) were so dismal. The same number of houses will sell this fall and winter. They will just be spread more evenly over all six months. Show them this in the forms of graphs in order to help them understand and therefore not panic.

3. The use of great visuals will make the difference.

The one common denominator with agents that are struggling is that they are trying to ‘talk’ their way through these difficult times. Trying to communicate the volatility of today’s real estate market by talking instead of using strong visuals is like hammering in a nail with your head. You will never get the job done and you’ll wind up with nothing but a headache.

4. The Luxury Market is not coming back – IT IS BACK!

The only segments of the housing market that are showing sales growth are the price points over $1 million. According to NAR, that market is up 6.1 % in the second quarter of this year vs. the second quarter of last year. Also, a recent survey showed that over 30% of affluent buyers are planning to either build/buy a new primary residence or a second/vacation home in the next twelve months. If you have worked this market in the past but left when sales dried up, it may be time to at least dip your toe back in that pool.

5. Be ‘BOLD’ in building your business.

This will be ‘the winter of discontent’ for many agents. People are already predicting a wave of agents (and maybe some companies) will not make it to the spring. This should be of no concern to an agent who has a goal they truly want to attain. Be bold in your goal setting. Most fortunes are made when a person’s (or company’s) competitors are retrenching out of fear. Step forward while others are retreating! Your courage will be rewarded!

However, if you want to be successful with anyone in the generations that followed my father’s, you must realize that you need to ‘show’ them what you are trying to communicate. I didn’t come home from school and sit in front of a radio. You probably didn’t either. We were the TV generation. We learned visually. My sons don’t call someone for verbal instructions when they need help. They go to YouTube for an instructional video.

If we want to simply and effectively explain today’s market to a client, YOU MUST USE VISUALS.

“This graph shows months of supply and the annualized change in the Case-Shiller Composite 20 house price index. Below 6 months of supply (blue line) house prices are typically rising (black line).

Above 6 or 7 months of supply, house prices are usually falling. This isn’t perfect – it is just a guideline. Over the last year, there have been many programs aimed at supporting house prices, and house prices increased slightly even with higher than normal supply. However those programs have mostly ended.

The dashed red line is the estimate for months of supply in July. Through the roof! And I expect we will see double-digit months-of-supply for a number of months.

This is a key reason why I expect house prices to fall further later this year.”

Why the increase in months’ supply of inventory? Demand for housing in the second half will be stable at best. At the same time more and more sellers (homeowners and banks holding foreclosure properties) are beginning to realize that this may be the time to put their houses on the market before prices drop any further.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR, believes demand will actually drop off.

“Home sales in the second half of this year will be markedly slower than in the first half of 2010.”

Jed Smith, Managing Director, Quantitative Research for NAR, explains why inventories will increase:

“As of the first quarter of 2010 over 6.5 million homes were in foreclosure or had overdue mortgage payments. Possibly as much as 75 percent of the shadow inventory will ultimately be sold as distressed… A number of homeowners who have deferred listing their homes due to market conditions may also now reenter the market, resulting in increased home inventories as the economy recovers. Once the employment numbers improve, pent-up demand may help to increase sales. In the short run, however, we may actually see additional inventory on the market as a result of listings by deferred sellers.”

Will a double-dip occur? The chances are increasing. As always, we’ll keep you current on this important matter.